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Miss Gitana

5yo Mare · 12-2 · OR 65

Clonmel · John Thomas McNamara Series (Q.R.) Handicap · 2m 174y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best efforts for current yard when placed at Leopardstown in July and Tramore last month. Had the run of the race on both of those occasions, though, and found life tougher when unable to dominate at Navan last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA97 @ Bellewstown 27/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 97 · 2m4f110y Gd 160 · below its mark27/08/2025 · OR 97 par27/0897OR 97BHA67 @ Navan 25/04/2026 · Pos 16th of 20 · OR 67 · 1m5f Goo 137 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 67 parBHA67 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 67 · 1m5f170y Goo 139 · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 67 par20/0567OR 67BHA65 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 65 · 2m40y Goo 135 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 65 parBHA63 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 63 · 1m5f Yie 134 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 63 par22/0663OR 63BHA94 @ Cork 10/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 23 · OR 94 · 2m1f60y Goo 162 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 94 parBHA62 @ Leopardstown 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 62 · 1m7f Goo 132 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 62 par23/0762OR 62BHA63 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 63 · 2m Goo 121 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 63 parBHA66 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 66 · 2m Goo 156 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 66 par2/0966OR 66projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02NavanBHA6615th15th0
2026-08-15TramoreBHA632nd2nd0
2026-07-23LeopardstownBHA623rd3rd0
2026-07-10CorkBHA949th9th0
2026-06-22BallinrobeBHA6313th13th0
2026-05-31ListowelBHA658th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0831/0523/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/08/20258th9/276%50%-0.26
25/04/202616th40/10%21%+0.21
20/05/20269th18/15%33%+0.28
31/05/20268th20/10%30%+0.30
22/06/202613th13/266%0%-0.66
10/07/20269th28/10%64%+0.64
23/07/20263rd33/10%75%+0.75
15/08/20262nd11/271%86%+0.15
02/09/202615th20/10%7%+0.07