2
Rich Belief
9yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 62
Clonmel · John Thomas McNamara Series (Q.R.) Handicap · 2m 174y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sligo | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | BHA64 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Wexford | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Navan | BHA67 | 19th | 19th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength71%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 22/09/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 25/04/2026 | 19th | 33/1 | 0% | 5% | +0.05 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |