Afterneath
5yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 74
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Meadowlands | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 08/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 16/11/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 22% | -0.36 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |