5
Cha Cha Chukka
5yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 89
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 5/6 | 96% | 14% | -0.81 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 29% | -0.60 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 38% | -0.48 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |