Stella Mars
8yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 89
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 13/09/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 19/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |