4
Aibell
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 78
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2024-11-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2024 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 70% | -0.17 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |