5
Cocoa Mills
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 80
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -32.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |