Hale Bop

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 78

Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

#13

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#13

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.4

Today:

Class gap: +1.1

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-22	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-07-26	Colonial Downs	?	9th	7th	+2	2.8
2026-06-27	Colonial Downs	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2025-09-01	Colonial Downs	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8
2025-08-22	Colonial Downs	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2025-07-23	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 6-15 · 68%

▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price

Trend▼

Strength17%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 15th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/09/2024	1st	10/1	47%	100%	+0.53
13/10/2024	8th	20/1	0%	13%	+0.13
21/05/2025	8th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
23/07/2025	3rd	33/1	0%	71%	+0.71
22/08/2025	7th	11/2	71%	25%	-0.46
01/09/2025	8th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
27/06/2026	6th	16/1	16%	17%	+0.01
26/07/2026	9th	25/1	0%	11%	+0.11
22/08/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	71%	+0.35