Hay Grace Brennan

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 72

Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength25%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: -0.2

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Colonial Downs	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2026-07-25	Colonial Downs	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-07-13	Colonial Downs	?	2nd	4th	−2	5.6
2026-05-15	Laurel Park	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6
2026-04-12	Laurel Park	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6
2026-03-12	Colonial Downs	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength44%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
12/03/2026	6th	25/1	0%	38%	+0.38
12/04/2026	6th	12/1	37%	29%	-0.08
15/05/2026	6th	40/1	0%	29%	+0.29
13/07/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	90%	+0.14
25/07/2026	1st	6/5	94%	100%	+0.06
30/08/2026	7th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00