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7

Smokeshow

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 73

Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Delaware Park 04/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 6f 1224/06C9C9 @ Laurel Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 56 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 56 par13/06C9OR 56C9 @ Delaware Park 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 58 · 1m70y 118 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 58 par29/07C9OR 58C7 @ Delaware Park 20/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 65 · 1m70y Yie 119 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 65 par20/08C7OR 65projClass-projected finish: 8th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Delaware Park?4th4th0
2026-07-29Delaware Park?1st3rd−2
2026-06-13Laurel Park?5th7th−2
2026-06-04Delaware Park?5th7th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0613/0629/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +19.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/20265th8/158%20%-0.38
13/06/20265th20/10%20%+0.20
29/07/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
20/08/20264th10/147%67%+0.19