Bugged Out
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 75
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |