9
Keep It Safe
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 78
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 13/12/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 22% | -0.41 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 08/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 21/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |