Vicountess
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 73
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 09/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 06/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |