13
Back Wall Bandit
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 77
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
43%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |