5
Cheese
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 74
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 10-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |