IvyArcIvyArc
7

Lady Embrace

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 86

Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Delaware Park 15/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 85 · 1m110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/10/2025 · OR 85 par15/10C5OR 85C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 10/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 83 · 1m110y Fm 119 · beat its mark10/01/2026 · OR 83 parC7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 21/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m1f Fm 11621/02C7C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 18/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 88 · 1m110y Fm 119 · below its mark18/03/2026 · OR 88 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 03/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 90 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 90 par3/04C8OR 90C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 17/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 90 · 1m 121 · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 90 parC7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 01/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 91 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 91 par1/05C7OR 91C8 @ Colonial Downs 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 88 · 1m110y Yie 123 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 88 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 86 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 86 par21/08C8OR 86projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Colonial Downs?4th5th−1
2026-07-25Colonial Downs?3rd4th−1
2026-05-01Tampa Bay Downs?5th5th0
2026-04-17Tampa Bay Downs?4th5th−1
2026-04-03Tampa Bay Downs?4th5th−1
2026-03-18Tampa Bay Downs?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1018/031/0521/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength34%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/10/20256th20/10%17%+0.17
10/01/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
21/02/20268th14/126%36%+0.10
18/03/20263rd11/486%82%-0.04
03/04/20264th5/493%63%-0.31
17/04/20264th11/893%67%-0.26
01/05/20265th25/10%33%+0.33
25/07/20263rd15/261%82%+0.21
21/08/20264th6/168%70%+0.02