11
Queen Wilhelmina
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 84
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/02/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 28/04/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 82% | -0.14 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |