10
Quiet City
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 69
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
Delivery trend +18.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |