9
Somme River
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 80
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-06-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 10/05/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 22/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 04/06/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |