3
Tiz Complex
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 76
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2025-07-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-06-08 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength74%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 02/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 21/05/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/06/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 13/07/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |