4
El Cohete
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 57
Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Durbanville Welcomes You Open Maiden · 4f 214y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
32%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Durbanville | ? | 7th | 3rd | +4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kenilworth | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -15.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 70% | -0.21 |
| 05/08/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 02/09/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |