IvyArcIvyArc
2

Mac D

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 40

Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Durbanville Welcomes You Open Maiden · 4f 214y

#10

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

33/1, seventh of 9 in maiden at this course (6.2f, good) 14 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kenilworth 02/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 4f214y GS 1322/06C8C8 @ Kenilworth 16/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 13216/06C8C8 @ Durbanville 18/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 13218/07C8C8 @ Durbanville 02/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 1322/09C8projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Durbanville?7th7th0
2026-07-18Durbanville?8th8th0
2026-06-16Kenilworth?7th7th0
2026-06-02Kenilworth?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0616/0618/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength54%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/06/20266th40/10%17%+0.17
16/06/20267th150/10%25%+0.25
18/07/20268th66/10%22%+0.22
02/09/20267th28/10%25%+0.25