1
Sicily
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 57
Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Durbanville Welcomes You Open Maiden · 4f 214y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
48%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength83%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Durbanville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Kenilworth | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Durbanville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Durbanville | ? | 4th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Durbanville | ? | 3rd | -1th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 56% | +0.50 |
| 08/11/2025 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 24/12/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 21/01/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |