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3

Limerance

3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 65

Durbanville · Join The Race Coast Turf Club Maiden Plate (F & M) · 7f 210y

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

14%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Last of 8 in maiden (17/2) at this C&D (good) 14 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kenilworth 18/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 12618/04C8C8 @ Kenilworth 19/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y GS 13219/05C8C8 @ Kenilworth 16/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 13216/06C8C8 @ Kenilworth 05/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 6f211y GS 1265/08C8projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Durbanville?0
2026-08-05Kenilworth?3rd3rd0
2026-06-16Kenilworth?7th7th0
2026-05-19Kenilworth?5th5th0
2026-04-18Kenilworth?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0419/0516/065/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/20266th28/10%29%+0.29
19/05/20265th25/10%60%+0.60
16/06/20267th33/10%14%+0.14
05/08/20263rd25/10%82%+0.82