8

Waiting Game

3yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 69

Durbanville · Lucky Fish Hot Hot Fruit Maiden Plate · 7f 210y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sixth of 10 in maiden at Kenilworth (7f, good to soft, 40/1) 42 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kenilworth 23/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y GS 13223/06C8C8 @ Kenilworth 05/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 6f211y GS 1265/08C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-05Kenilworth?6th6th0
2026-06-23Kenilworth?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/065/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%

Delivery trend +66.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/06/20268th8/158%36%-0.22
05/08/20266th33/10%44%+0.44