8
Baton Rouge
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 69
Durbanville · Bet With Tote www.tote.co.za C Stakes · 1m 1f 208y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
39%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Durbanville | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kenilworth | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Durbanville | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 06/12/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 21/12/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 17% | -0.39 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |