2
Etoilefillante
6yo Gelding · 8-4 · OR 33
Durbanville · Bet With Tote www.tote.co.za C Stakes · 1m 1f 208y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Kenilworth | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Durbanville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Kenilworth | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Kenilworth | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Kenilworth | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 13/01/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 25/02/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 03/05/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 24/05/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 05/08/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 42% | -0.21 |