11
Fort Liam
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 60
Durbanville · Bet With Tote www.tote.co.za C Stakes · 1m 1f 208y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Durbanville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Durbanville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 85% | +0.27 |
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |