10
Glenalmond
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 61
Durbanville · Bet With Tote www.tote.co.za C Stakes · 1m 1f 208y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Durbanville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Durbanville | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength97%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 22/09/2025 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 17/01/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 11/02/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |