1
Master Coiner
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 66
Durbanville · Bet With Tote www.tote.co.za C Stakes · 1m 1f 208y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Kenilworth | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Durbanville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Kenilworth | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-24 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Kenilworth | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 57% | +0.52 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 92% | +0.02 |