4
Wehaveasituation
6yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 63
Durbanville · Bet With Tote www.tote.co.za C Stakes · 1m 1f 208y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Durbanville | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Durbanville | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Durbanville | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kenilworth | 5 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 17/12/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 31/01/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 58% | +0.06 |
| 19/05/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 9% | +0.04 |
| 27/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 18/07/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |