1
District Master
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 42
Durbanville · Race Coast Incentives Powered By Hollywoodbets C Stakes · 6f 211y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Kenilworth | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Durbanville | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Kenilworth | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Kenilworth | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-25 | Durbanville | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Kenilworth | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 17/12/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 13/01/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 25/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 71% | -0.21 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 12/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |