4
Ferryman
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 58
Durbanville · Race Coast Incentives Powered By Hollywoodbets C Stakes · 6f 211y
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength22%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Kenilworth | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Kenilworth | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-01-04 | Kenilworth | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 05/08/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 22% | -0.41 |