8
Loving Prague
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 74
Durbanville · Race Coast Incentives Powered By Hollywoodbets C Stakes · 6f 211y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Durbanville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Durbanville | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Kenilworth | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kenilworth | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Durbanville | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kenilworth | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 06/12/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 10/01/2026 | 11th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 31/01/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 18/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 01/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 24/05/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 29% | -0.62 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |