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3

Noble Hero

5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 43

Durbanville · Race Coast Incentives Powered By Hollywoodbets C Stakes · 6f 211y

#9

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Tenth of 11 in handicap at Kenilworth (8f, good to soft, 33/1) 35 days ago. Booking of Behr a plus. Uphill task.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kenilworth 22/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS22/114C5 @ Kenilworth 21/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 126C5 @ Kenilworth 13/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 12913/01C5C5 @ Durbanville 11/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 129C5 @ Kenilworth 06/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 1366/04C54 @ Kenilworth 02/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Durbanville 14/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 13614/07C54 @ Durbanville 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kenilworth 12/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 7f210y GS 126 · HIGHER CLASS12/084projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Kenilworth410th9th+1
2026-07-25Durbanville46th5th+1
2026-07-14Durbanville?7th7th0
2026-06-02Kenilworth49th8th+1
2026-04-06Kenilworth?8th8th0
2026-02-11Durbanville?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1111/0214/0712/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength18%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/11/20257th5/174%33%-0.40
21/12/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
13/01/20264th7/163%67%+0.04
11/02/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
06/04/20268th5/174%13%-0.61
02/06/20269th25/10%0%0.00
14/07/20267th33/10%0%0.00
25/07/20266th50/10%44%+0.44
12/08/202610th20/10%10%+0.10