5
Sutherland
6yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 84
Durbanville · Race Coast Incentives Powered By Hollywoodbets C Stakes · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Durbanville | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Turffontein | ? | 8th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-15 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-13 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength41%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 08/05/2025 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 56% | -0.38 |
| 02/09/2025 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 13/11/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 15/01/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 19/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 09/04/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |