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5

True Horizon

6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 20

Durbanville · RCS Two Year Old Sale 24 October Class 5 (F & M) · 6f 47y

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Latest win here in March. 11½ lengths tenth of 11 to Easy Money in minor event at Kenilworth (5f, good to soft, 8/1) 32 days ago. Back up in trip. Difficult ask.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kenilworth 10/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 11610/115C5 @ Kenilworth 03/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Kenilworth 04/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 1154/0155 @ Durbanville 21/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 118C5 @ Kenilworth 25/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS25/02C55 @ Durbanville 18/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 1185 @ Kenilworth 03/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 1213/0555 @ Kenilworth 31/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 5f212y GS 121C5 @ Kenilworth 15/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 4f214y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS15/08C5projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Kenilworth?10th9th+1
2026-05-31Kenilworth57th7th0
2026-05-03Kenilworth512th12th0
2026-03-18Durbanville51st1st0
2026-02-25Kenilworth?2nd1st+1
2026-01-21Durbanville56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1121/013/0515/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/11/20252nd25/10%83%+0.83
03/12/20253rd5/174%71%-0.02
04/01/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
21/01/20266th7/163%29%-0.35
25/02/20262nd8/158%88%+0.30
18/03/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
03/05/202612th14/126%15%-0.11
31/05/20267th33/10%50%+0.50
15/08/202610th17/255%10%-0.45