5
Avignon
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 89
Durbanville · Lucky Fish Mystic Fortune Class 4 · 6f 47y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Durbanville | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kenilworth | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Durbanville | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Kenilworth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kenilworth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Kenilworth | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 25/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |