4
Celtic Chief
6yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 73
Durbanville · Lucky Fish Mystic Fortune Class 4 · 6f 47y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Durbanville | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Kenilworth | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-06-04 | Greyville | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-04-02 | Scottsville | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2024 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 13/12/2024 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 07/02/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 02/04/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 04/06/2025 | 9th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 04/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 25/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 30/03/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |