2
Dawn's Early Light
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 48
Durbanville · Lucky Fish Mystic Fortune Class 4 · 6f 47y
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Kenilworth | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kenilworth | 5 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Durbanville | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Durbanville | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-13 | Kenilworth | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Kenilworth | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/11/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 13/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 13/01/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 11/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 18/03/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 19/05/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 05/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |