3
Vercicat
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 80
Durbanville · Lucky Fish Mystic Fortune Class 4 · 6f 47y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
29%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Durbanville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kenilworth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kenilworth | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kenilworth | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Kenilworth | ? | 13th | 18th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 13/01/2026 | 13th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 06/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 64% | -0.18 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |