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All About Al

9yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 81

Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Middle Stakes · 4f 214y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

3-time C&D winner. 3 wins from 7 runs this year. Latest win here in July. 5/1, good third of 11 in handicap at Kenilworth (5f, good to soft) 32 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kenilworth 03/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS3/124C5 @ Kenilworth 24/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 132C5 @ Durbanville 17/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 13217/01C5C5 @ Durbanville 04/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1364 @ Kenilworth 30/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS30/0344 @ Kenilworth 19/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 4f214y GS 131 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 21/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 4f214y GS 13721/06C5C5 @ Durbanville 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1193 @ Kenilworth 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 4f214y GS 120 · HIGHER CLASS15/083projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Kenilworth33rd1st+2
2026-07-18Durbanville?1st1st0
2026-06-21Kenilworth?2nd2nd0
2026-05-19Kenilworth41st0th+1
2026-03-30Kenilworth46th5th+1
2026-03-04Durbanville?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/124/0321/0615/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength75%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/12/20254th9/276%57%-0.19
24/12/20253rd11/142%78%+0.36
17/01/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
04/03/20265th9/276%33%-0.43
30/03/20266th8/158%38%-0.20
19/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
21/06/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
18/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
15/08/20263rd5/174%80%+0.06