6
Champagne Castle
3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 49
Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Middle Stakes · 4f 214y
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Greyville | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kenilworth | ? | 12th | 8th | +4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength8%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 78% | -0.16 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 31/01/2026 | 12th | 6/5 | 94% | 8% | -0.85 |
| 11/04/2026 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |