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11

Magma Flow

3yo Colt · 8-4 · OR 87

Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Middle Stakes · 4f 214y

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner at Kenilworth in April. Bit below form 7½ lengths fifth of 9 to Aquae Calidae in Gr 3 at this course (7.4f, good, 66/1) 81 days ago. Significantly back down in trip. Looks competitive on form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength60%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Kenilworth 13/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 13213/12C?C5 @ Kenilworth 10/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 130C8 @ Kenilworth 04/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1324/02C8C3 @ Kenilworth 28/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASSC8 @ Kenilworth 15/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 13215/04C8C3 @ Kenilworth 03/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f103y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Kenilworth 31/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f212y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS31/05C1C1 @ Durbanville 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f101y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS27/06C1projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27Durbanville?5th0th+4
2026-05-31Kenilworth?6th2nd+4
2026-05-03Kenilworth?3rd1st+2
2026-04-15Kenilworth?1st5th−4
2026-02-28Kenilworth?8th6th+2
2026-02-04Kenilworth?2nd6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1228/0231/0527/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength32%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/12/20255th20/10%50%+0.50
10/01/20265th28/10%64%+0.64
04/02/20262nd18/15%91%+0.86
28/02/20268th25/10%13%+0.13
15/04/20261st4/797%100%+0.03
03/05/20263rd28/10%67%+0.67
31/05/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
27/06/20265th50/10%50%+0.50