3
October Storm
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 80
Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Middle Stakes · 4f 214y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Kenilworth | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Kenilworth | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kenilworth | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-12-10 | Kenilworth | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Durbanville | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Durbanville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 15/07/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 25/10/2025 | 11th | 6/5 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 10/12/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 14% | -0.28 |
| 06/04/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 27/04/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |