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13

Papillon Blu

5yo Mare · 8-2 · OR 46

Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Middle Stakes · 4f 214y

#11

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

25/1, 11¼ lengths eleventh of 13 to Pink Pigeon in minor event at Kenilworth (6f, good). Off 8 months. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kenilworth 14/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 12614/04C8C8 @ Greyville 28/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Std 1274 @ Greyville 18/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS18/0644 @ Greyville 13/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Durbanville 13/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 11713/09C5C5 @ Durbanville 15/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 122C5 @ Kenilworth 08/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 5f103y Gd 1158/11C54 @ Kenilworth 06/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 10/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 12210/01C5projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-01-10Kenilworth?11th11th0
2025-12-06Kenilworth44th3rd+1
2025-11-08Kenilworth?9th9th0
2025-10-15Durbanville?7th7th0
2025-09-13Durbanville?4th4th0
2025-07-13Greyville41st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0413/078/1110/01
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength20%

Delivery trend -0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/04/20255th18/15%64%+0.58
28/05/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
18/06/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
13/07/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
13/09/20254th13/266%50%-0.16
15/10/20257th11/271%33%-0.38
08/11/20259th80/10%43%+0.43
06/12/20254th25/10%77%+0.77
10/01/202611th18/15%17%+0.11