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Pink Pigeon

5yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 93

Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Middle Stakes · 4f 214y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

74%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Good second of 11 in handicap at Kenilworth (5f, good to soft, 16/1) 32 days ago. Form choice.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength65%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Kenilworth 08/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 5f103y Gd 1168/11C54 @ Kenilworth 06/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 140 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 10/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 12910/01C5C1 @ Kenilworth 31/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 22/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f103y Gd 13622/02C5C5 @ Kenilworth 06/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 5f103y Gd 1323 @ Kenilworth 31/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f212y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS31/053C5 @ Fairview 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Std 1323 @ Kenilworth 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 4f214y GS 131 · HIGHER CLASS15/083projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Kenilworth32nd0th+2
2026-06-19Fairview?2nd2nd0
2026-05-31Kenilworth32nd0th+2
2026-04-06Kenilworth?3rd3rd0
2026-02-22Kenilworth?4th4th0
2026-01-31Kenilworth?4th0th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1131/0131/0515/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/11/20253rd9/276%86%+0.09
06/12/20252nd9/488%92%+0.04
10/01/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
31/01/20264th11/486%70%-0.16
22/02/20264th5/287%50%-0.37
06/04/20263rd10/382%50%-0.32
31/05/20262nd7/163%80%+0.17
19/06/20262nd13/891%88%-0.04
15/08/20262nd14/126%90%+0.64