3
Lily Carnois
5yo Filly · 0-0
Feurs · Prix Groupe Micholet - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Hyeres | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hyeres | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Saint Galmier | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Lyon La Soie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Saint Galmier | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 80% | +0.75 |
| 16/05/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 70% | +0.65 |
| 24/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 01/02/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 18/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 14/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |