2
Nantz
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 81
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 26/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |