Spirit Of Esther

5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 70

Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-13	Saratoga	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-05-24	Belmont At The Big A	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-08	Belmont At The Big A	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-04-30	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-04-03	Aqueduct	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-03-12	Aqueduct	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength98%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
09/01/2026	3rd	11/4	86%	60%	-0.26
19/02/2026	2nd	5/2	87%	89%	+0.02
06/03/2026	4th	11/2	71%	40%	-0.31
12/03/2026	2nd	11/4	86%	83%	-0.02
03/04/2026	2nd	1/1	95%	83%	-0.11
30/04/2026	5th	16/1	16%	20%	+0.04
08/05/2026	4th	13/2	66%	57%	-0.09
24/05/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	71%	+0.56
13/08/2026	6th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00